Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton leads Republican Donald Trump in trust to handle terrorism -– but the table turns among those who say they feel terrorism is the most pressing issue in the election.
Terrorism has surged as an election issue since the Nov. 13 Paris
attacks, and this ABC News/Washington Post poll finds Clinton with an
8-point lead over Trump in trust to handle it. Among those who call it
the top issue in their vote, though, Trump leads by 25 points.
That's because concern about terrorism is especially high among
Republicans and conservatives, and their trust in Clinton, on this and
other issues, is very low. Those most concerned with the economy, by
contrast, tend to be Democrats, and far prefer Clinton, including on
terrorism.
Notably, Clinton maintains a slight lead on terrorism against Trump
among registered voters, a 7-point advantage in this poll, produced for
ABC by Langer Research Associates.
That's not so with other top GOP contenders; the former secretary of
state leads most of them among all adults –- although former Florida
Gov. Jeb Bush and Florida Sen. Marco Rubio
are within the margin of error –- but not among those who are
registered. This reflects the customary GOP edge in registration -–
clearly damaging to the Democrats if left unaddressed.
There's a contrast in Trump's position on terrorism moving from the GOP
contest to a general election. Among Republicans and Republican-leaning
independents, he leads the top primary candidates by a wide margin as
most trusted to deal with the issue. When Trump is tested against
Clinton, though, 21 percent of leaned Republicans prefer her,
contributing to her advantage over Trump on terrorism among all
Americans.
That said, 42 percent of leaned Republicans and 40 percent of
conservatives cite terrorism as the most important issue in the
election, compared, for example, with 18 percent of leaned Democrats and
15 percent of liberals. Leaned Republicans and conservatives also are
much more likely to see an attack as likely and to doubt the
government’s capacity to prevent it.
As a result, among Americans who view the threat of terrorism as the
most important issue in the 2016 election (28 percent of adults), Trump
leads Clinton 65 percent to 35 percent in trust to handle it, with
almost identical results for the other top GOP candidates. Similar
patterns hold true for those who think that an imminent terrorist attack
is very likely or who lack confidence the government can prevent one.
Methodology
This ABC News/Washington Post poll was conducted by landline and
cellular telephone Nov. 16-19, 2015, in English and Spanish, among a
random national sample of 1,004 adults. Results have a margin of sampling error of 3.5 points, including the design effect. Partisan divisions are 33-23-36 percent, Democrats-Republicans-independents.
The survey was produced for ABC News by Langer Research Associates
of New York, N.Y., with sampling, data collection and tabulation by
Abt-SRBI of New York, N.Y. See details on the survey’s methodology here.
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